A cikin 2024, a ƙarƙashin tasirin dual na tsarin tattalin arzikin duniya da daidaita manufofin gida, masana'antar aluminium ta kasar Sin ta nuna yanayin aiki mai sarkakiya da canzawa. Gabaɗaya, girman kasuwa yana ci gaba da faɗaɗa, kuma samar da aluminum da amfani da su sun ci gaba da haɓaka, amma haɓakar haɓaka ya canza. A gefe guda, ƙaddamar da ƙarfin buƙatun sababbin motocin makamashi, photovoltaic, wutar lantarki da sauran filayen, aikace-aikacen aikace-aikacen aluminum yana ci gaba da fadadawa, yana ƙaddamar da sabon haɓaka ga ci gaban masana'antu; A gefe guda kuma, koma bayan da aka samu a kasuwannin gidaje ya sanya matsin lamba kan bukatar aluminum a bangaren gine-gine. Daidaitawar masana'antar aluminium zuwa sauye-sauyen kasuwa, dabarun mayar da martani ga sauye-sauye masu yawa a farashin albarkatun kasa, da yunƙurin shigar da ƙaƙƙarfan buƙatu don ci gaban kore da ƙarancin carbon ana ci gaba da yin bincike kuma a hankali a hankali. Bayyanar sabon ingancin ingancin masana'antu bai riga ya cika buƙatun ci gaban masana'antar ba, kuma masana'antar aluminum tana fuskantar ƙalubale da yawa.
1.aluminum masana'antu sarkar kasuwar bincike
Alumina
A watan Yunin 2024, abin da aka fitar ya kai tan miliyan 7.193, wanda ya karu da kashi 1.4 cikin 100 duk shekara, kuma karuwar wata-wata ya iyakance. A cikin ɓangarorin masu zuwa na sake dawo da ƙarfin samarwa da aka fitar, ana iya fitar da sabon samarwa a cikin Mongoliya ta ciki sannu a hankali, kuma ƙarfin aiki ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa.
A cikin 2024, farashin alumina yana jujjuyawa sosai, yana nuna halaye masu tsauri. A farkon rabin shekara, farashin gaba ɗaya ya nuna haɓakar haɓakawa, wanda daga watan Janairu zuwa Mayu, farashin alumina ya tashi daga kusan yuan 3,000 a farkon shekara zuwa fiye da yuan 4,000, karuwar fiye da 30%. Babban dalilin haɓakar farashin a wannan matakin shine ƙarancin samar da bauxite na cikin gida, wanda ke haifar da hauhawar farashin samar da alumina.
Haɓakar farashin alumina ya haifar da babban matsin lamba akan farashin masana'antar aluminium na ƙasa. Don samar da 1 ton na electrolytic aluminum yana buƙatar cinye tan 1.925 na lissafin alumina, farashin alumina ya tashi 1000 yuan / ton, farashin samar da aluminum na electrolytic zai karu da kimanin 1925 yuan / ton. Dangane da matsin lamba, wasu kamfanonin aluminium na lantarki sun fara rage yawan samarwa ko kuma rage jinkirin dawo da shirin samar da kayayyaki, kamar lardin Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Liaoning, Chongqing da sauran wurare masu tsada na wasu kamfanoni a kasar Sin sun sanar da sake yin kwaskwarima, dakatar da tankunan ruwa ko rage saurin sake samar da kayayyakin.
Electrolytic aluminum
A cikin 2022, ƙarfin samarwa ya kasance kusan tan miliyan 43, wanda ya kusanci layin jan rufin. Kamar yadda na Disamba 2024, da aiki iya aiki na kasar Sin electrolytic aluminum masana'antu ya 43,584,000 ton, wani karuwa na 1.506 ton miliyan, ko 3.58%, idan aka kwatanta da 42,078,000 ton a karshen 2023. A halin yanzu, jimlar samar da iya aiki na cikin gida electrolytic samar da miliyan 5. iya aiki. Aiwatar da wannan manufar yana da mahimmanci ga ci gaban dogon lokaci na masana'antar aluminum na electrolytic. Yana taimakawa wajen sarrafa karfin aiki a cikin masana'antu, guje wa gasa mai muni, da haɓaka ci gaban masana'antar a cikin ingantacciyar inganci, kore kuma mai dorewa. Ta hanyar kawar da iyawar samar da baya da inganta ingantaccen makamashi, ana ƙarfafa masana'antu don haɓaka sabbin fasahohi da saka hannun jari a cikin tanadin makamashi da rage fitar da hayaki, da haɓaka gasa gaba ɗaya na masana'antu.
Aluminum sarrafa
Tare da haɓaka buƙatun ƙananan nauyi a cikin masana'antu daban-daban, buƙatun samfuran da aka sarrafa na aluminum yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa, kuma samfuran suna haɓakawa a cikin babban matakin, mai hankali da kariyar muhalli. A cikin filin gine-gine, duk da koma bayan da aka samu a kasuwannin gidaje, kofofin aluminum da Windows, bangon labule da sauran samfurori har yanzu suna da buƙatu a cikin sababbin gine-ginen kasuwanci, manyan gine-ginen zama da tsofaffin ayyukan gyaran gine-gine. Bisa kididdigar da aka yi, adadin aluminium da aka yi amfani da shi a cikin masana'antar gine-gine ya kai kimanin kashi 28% na yawan amfanin aluminum. A fannin sufuri, musamman ma saurin haɓaka sabbin motocin makamashi, buƙatar kayan sarrafa aluminum ya nuna haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar makamashi. Tare da haɓaka aikin ƙananan nauyin mota, aluminum gami yana daɗaɗa amfani da shi sosai a cikin tsarin jiki, cibiya ta hannu, tiren baturi da sauran abubuwan haɗin gwiwa. Ɗaukar sabon motar makamashi a matsayin misali, adadin aluminum da ake amfani da shi a cikin jikinsa ya wuce 400 kg / mota, wanda ya karu sosai idan aka kwatanta da motocin man fetur na gargajiya. Bugu da kari, buqatar masu sarrafa aluminium, radiators na aluminium da sauran kayayyaki a cikin masana'antar wutar lantarki suma sun tashi a hankali tare da ginawa da haɓaka grid ɗin wutar lantarki.
Aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida
A cikin shekarun baya-bayan nan, an ci gaba da hakowa, shekarar 2024 wata muhimmiyar shekara ce da kasar Sin ta sake yin amfani da aluminium don yin babban ci gaba, kuma yawan almuran da aka sake sarrafa a duk shekara ya karya darajar tan miliyan 10, wanda ya kai kimanin tan miliyan 10.55, kuma rabon aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida da aluminum ya kai kusan 1:4. Duk da haka, sake yin amfani da aluminium sharar gida, tushen haɓakar aluminum da aka sake sarrafa, ba shi da kyakkyawan fata.
Ci gaban masana'antar aluminium da aka sake yin fa'ida ya dogara sosai kan samar da albarkatun almuran sharar gida, kuma samar da albarkatun almuran da aka sake yin fa'ida a kasar Sin na fuskantar mawuyacin hali. A cikin gida aluminum sharar sake yin amfani da tsarin ba cikakke ba, ko da yake kasar Sin tsohon aluminum sharar dawo da kudi a wasu yankunan a duniya ta manyan matakin, kamar gwangwani na aluminum sharar sake yin amfani da zai iya kai 100%, gina aluminum sharar sake yin amfani da zai iya kai 90%, mota sufuri filin ne 87%, amma da overall dawo da kudi har yanzu bukatar da za a inganta, yafi saboda da yawan sake amfani da aluminum sharar gida tashoshi da aka watsar da manyan tashoshi na aluminum sharar gida. ba a sake sarrafa su yadda ya kamata ba.
Daidaita manufofin shigo da kayayyaki ya kuma yi tasiri sosai kan samar da albarkatun almuran da aka sake yin fa'ida. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kasar Sin ta aiwatar da tsauraran matakan kula da shigo da kayan aluminium don karfafa kare muhalli da sarrafa albarkatun kasa. Wannan ya haifar da babban sauye-sauye a cikin shigo da simintin gyaran gyare-gyaren simintin gyare-gyare na kayan da aka sake yin fa'ida, a watan Oktoban 2024, bullar aluminium da kasar Sin ta shigo da ton 133,000, ya karu da kashi 0.81%, ya ragu da kashi 13.59 cikin dari a duk shekara, yanayin da ake shigo da shi ya nuna rashin kwanciyar hankali.
2.Aluminum masana'antu sarkar kasuwar hangen nesa
Aluminum oxide
A shekarar 2025, za a sami karin sabbin karfin samar da kayayyaki, tare da karuwar kusan kashi 13%, tare da yiwuwar ma'adinan da ake shigo da su daga waje na iya maye gurbin ma'adinan cikin gida na kasar Sin gaba daya, kuma daidaita tsarin ragi na harajin aluminum zuwa kasashen waje zai dakile karuwar bukatar, kuma farashin zai fadi tare da babban yuwuwar. Ƙara yawan kayan aiki: Sabbin ƙarfin samar da alumina na kasar Sin a cikin 2025 na Mayu ya kai tan miliyan 13.2, kuma ana sa ran karfin samar da kayayyaki a ketare zai karu da ton miliyan 5.1 a shekarar 2025. Faduwar farashin: samar da bauxite da alumina ya karu, rashin jituwa tsakanin samarwa da bukatu ya ragu sosai, kuma farashin ya ragu sosai.
Electrolytic aluminum
Ƙarfin samar da kayan da aka samar ya kai ga rufi, yuwuwar haɓaka samar da kayayyaki yana da ƙananan ƙananan, abubuwan da ke faruwa a ketare suna shafar abubuwa daban-daban, kuma ba za a iya yin aikin da kyau ba. A bangaren bukatu, baya ga raguwar bukatu na gidaje na shekara-shekara, sauran buƙatun tashoshi sun nuna kyakkyawan aiki, musamman a fagen haɓaka sabbin buƙatun makamashi, da wadata da buƙatu na duniya suna kiyaye daidaiton daidaito; Ƙarfin samar da gida yana kusa da layin ja, jimlar 450,000 ton na sabon ƙarfin samar da gida za a iya saka hannun jari a cikin 2025, kuma ana sa ran za a ƙara ton 820,000 na sabon ƙarfin samarwa a ƙarƙashin yanayin yanayin, haɓakar 2.3% idan aka kwatanta da 2024, haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar al'ada ya canza sosai. da sabon buƙatun mamaye hotovoltaic da sabbin motocin makamashi ana tsammanin su kasance ƙasa da tan 260,000 na wadatar aluminium na lantarki na gida a cikin 2025. Farashin farashin: Ana sa ran farashin aluminium na Shanghai zai iya canzawa tsakanin 19000-20500 yuan / ton a farkon rabin shekara, kuma daidaitawa a cikin rabin na biyu na farashin shekara, kuma ana sa ran za a daidaita shi a cikin rabin na biyu na farashin shekara. 20,000-21,000 yuan/ton.
Aluminum sarrafa
Tare da saurin haɓaka sabbin motocin makamashi, masana'antar photovoltaic da haɓaka fasahar 5G, buƙatun samfuran da aka sarrafa na aluminium za su ci gaba da ƙaruwa kuma ana sa ran ci gaba da haɓaka haɓakar ci gaba. Girman Girman Kasuwa: Ana sa ran girman kasuwar zai kai yuan tiriliyan 1, kuma buƙatun sabbin motocin makamashi, photovoltaic, 3C da gida mai wayo yana da ƙarfi. Haɓakawa na samfur: Samfurin yana motsawa zuwa babban aiki, nauyi mai nauyi da aiki da yawa, da bincike da haɓaka kayan aiki masu mahimmanci da kayan aikin aluminum na musamman. Ci gaban fasaha: mai hankali, aiki da kai a cikin al'ada, kayan aikin saka hannun jari na kasuwanci, samar da sarrafawa, haɓaka inganci da inganci, haɗin gwiwar masana'antu-jami'a-bincike don haɓaka ci gaban fasaha.
Aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida
Shigar da lokacin girma, tarkace / tarwatsa motocin sun shiga lokacin ƙididdigewa, wanda zai iya cika yanayin rashin isassun aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida a cikin gida, kuma kasuwa tana da fa'ida mai fa'ida, amma a halin yanzu tana fuskantar matsaloli kamar ƙarancin tarkacen da aka shigo da su, ƙarfin jira-da-ganin kasuwa, da ƙarancin ƙima. Samar da haɓaka: A cewar reshen Karfe da aka sake yin fa'ida na ƙungiyar masana'antar masana'antar ƙarfe ta kasar Sin, za ta kai tan miliyan 11.35 a shekarar 2025. Fadada filin aikace-aikacen: A cikin fagagen sabbin motocin makamashi, gine-gine, na'urorin lantarki da sauran aikace-aikacen za su ci gaba da faɗaɗa, kamar sabbin motocin makamashi a cikin neman haɓaka nisan miloli, adadi mai yawa na rage ma'aunin aluminum. Haɓaka maida hankali kan masana'antu: Ƙarƙashin faɗaɗa nau'i biyu na ƙarfin samar da manyan masana'antu da ka'idojin masana'antu, kasuwa za ta kawar da wasu ƙananan masana'antu, kuma kamfanoni masu fa'ida za su iya yin tasiri mai ma'ana, rage farashi, da ƙarfafa gasa kasuwa.
3.Strategy analysis
Alumina: Kamfanin samar da kayayyaki na iya ƙara yawan kaya daidai lokacin da farashin ya yi girma, jira farashin ya fadi sannan kuma a hankali jirgi; 'Yan kasuwa na iya yin la'akari da ɗaukar gajeren matsayi kafin farashin ya fadi zuwa shinge ta kasuwa na gaba da kuma kulle ribar.
Electrolytic aluminum: Kamfanonin samarwa na iya ba da hankali ga haɓakar buƙatu a cikin yankuna masu tasowa kamar sabbin makamashi, daidaita tsarin samfur, da haɓaka samar da samfuran da ke da alaƙa; Masu saka hannun jari na iya siyan kwangiloli na gaba lokacin da farashin yayi ƙasa kuma su sayar da su lokacin da farashin yayi girma gwargwadon yanayin tattalin arziki da wadata kasuwa da canje-canjen buƙatu.
Aluminum sarrafa: ya kamata kamfanoni su ƙarfafa ƙirƙira fasaha da bincike da haɓaka samfuri, haɓaka ƙarin ƙimar samfur da ƙimar kasuwa; Fadada kasuwanni masu tasowa, kamar sabbin motocin makamashi, sararin samaniya, bayanan lantarki da sauran fannoni; Ƙarfafa haɗin gwiwa tare da kamfanoni na sama da na ƙasa don kafa sarkar samar da kayayyaki.
Lokacin aikawa: Fabrairu-03-2025
